Disclaimer: The following analysis results are the sole opinion of the author and should not be considered as investment advice.
XRP has performed incredibly well over the past few days. It has gained nearly 30% in the past week due to a rally from $0.32 to $0.42.
For a currency rank 7th on CoinMarketCap With a market capitalization of $20.16 billion, it was a remarkable rise. Looking ahead, can the bulls maintain momentum, or will the range-bound price action continue?
XRP- 3-day chart
The 3-day timeframe shows that the market structure has taken a bullish turn. The price formed a range (yellow) between $0.42 and $0.31.
In August, XRP rose just above the mid-range level but could not close a 3-day candle above $0.38. At the time of writing the most recent and moving candle looked like it might close above the August high.
If this happens, the D3 structure will reverse to bullish. Patience may reward bulls, especially if XRP can succeed in reversing the range highs to support.
Still, until this happens, trading within the range can be a safe mindset for a trader. In general, a range continuation occurs more regularly than a strong breakout.
On the daily timeframe, the market structure has already assumed a bullish bias. Still, this can lull buyers into a false sense of security. There is upside to test the $0.42-$0.45 region for liquidity before a sharp decline could occur.
Price seeks liquidity, and such a move can force short positions to be closed at a loss, and also signal to sideways traders that a breakout is imminent. A decline towards $0.36 and $0.34 could force the same buyers to sell at a loss and add further downside momentum.
While this scenario may be viable, a breakout above $0.42 was what the indicators suggested OBV has formed a series of higher lows since mid-June and indicates steady demand behind XRP. RSI was also above neutral 50 to show heavy bullish momentum.
Which way will XRP lean? A retracement of $0.42-$0.45 would be more likely to sell as a divergence above the range rather than a buying opportunity in anticipation of a breakout. That said, the indicators showed a bullish bias.
In conclusion, risk-averse traders can wait for a rejection at $0.42-$0.45. Alternatively, traders who feel more comfortable with risk positions can enter short positions in the $0.42-$0.45 zone, with stop-loss targets at $0.36, $0.34, and above $0.31 and $0.45.